- The Cincinnati Bengals are 5-point underdogs vs the Buffalo Bills.
- When favored for or against by five or less, the Bengals are 9-1 ATS.
- The Bengals and Bills combined have went over a 48-point total in 1/8 games.
BUFFALO, NY – The Cincinnati Bengals come into this game as five-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills, who will look to continue their eight-game win streak. The two teams met in week 17 but the game was cancelled after just 18 total plays.
Notably, online gambling sites have shifted from the week 17 closing spread of Bills -2.5 to now being Bills -5.
Bengals Defense Has Been on Fire
The Bengals come off a 24-17 win against the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round, with defensive lineman Sam Hubbard scoring a 98-yard game-sealing fumble return for touchdown. In their last five games the Bengals have let up 20+ points just once but may have their hands full against a Bills team that has scored less than 32 points just once in their last five.
In the few plays we did see from the Bengals during week 17 prior to the cancellation, it took just seven plays for them to score a touchdown on the Bills, signaling that even the Bills top five scoring defense could struggle against Joe Burrow. However, the injuries to the offensive line in the weeks since the cancellation may spell some trouble for Burrow, though he has dealt with a poor offensive line for his entire career up to this point.
The Bengals Thrive in Close Games
When the spread of the game is close (less than five points) the Bengals are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS. Similarly, in one-score games, the Bengals boast a great 6-3 record throughout the season.
With NFL gambling sportsbooks setting the spread at Bengals +5 (-110), bettors can find some value with an extra 2.5 points of leeway from their previous week 17 matchup spread. The bottom-line is that the Bengals are a team with enough offensive firepower and defensive talent to force close games, even against top teams such as the Bills.
In seven games against top 10 scoring defenses, the Bengals are 5-2 and score an average of 26 points per game. This matches their average for the entire season and shows that while stout, the Bills defense is by no means a horrible matchup for Burrow and the Bengals.
Bettors can thus feel confident in having the Bengals keep the game close, if not win outright; this makes the Bengals spread of +5 a solid inclusion in a parlay or as a straight bet.
Minor Trends to Look Out For
- The Bengals are 3-0 ATS vs AFC East teams this season.
- Meanwhile, the Bills are 2-1 ATS vs the AFC North.
- Cincinnati is a strong 7-2 ATS on the road this year.
Bengals Spread +5 (-110)