- The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the highest point totals of the week (53.5 points) at -110 odds.
- The Bucs are allowing a league high 6.2 receptions per game to WR1 options.
- Leonard Fournette has scored a team high nine touchdowns this season.
TAMPA, Fla. - All DFS players' eyes are on the 4:25 p.m. EST matchup Sunday between the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are coming off a convincing win over the Atlanta Falcons, while the Bills will look to avenge a close 14-10 loss to the New England Patriots.
Oddsmakers have listed the Buccaneers as 3.5-point home favorites, and have pegged this game with a total of 53.5 points.
On a DFS slate with few high total games to target, this game stands out as the clear game to stack up in GPPs in hopes of an offensive explosion.
Tom Brady: $7,600
Tom Brady had his sixth game this season passing for four touchdowns or more this past weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. For comparison, no other quarterback has more than two of those games this year.
The Buffalo Bills appear to be a stout passing defense, but they have not faced much stiff competition this year. Buffalo has only faced one QB1 this year in Patrick Mahomes, who has had his own struggles this year.
The Bills will also be without star CB Tre'Davious White who recently tore his ACL.
Josh Allen: $7,800
Josh Allen is coming off a poor performance on Monday Night Football, but can be afforded a pass for the brutal weather he had to play in.
Josh Allen has not performed well when pressured in the pocket this season. That is bad news for having to go up against a Tampa team that leads the league in blitz rate (35.4%). Allen has completed 59.0% of his passes (28th) for 6.5 yards per pass attempt (26th) compared to a 68.2% completion rate (13th) and 7.6 Y/A (12th) when not blitzed.
Despite the semi-imposing matchup, Tampa has allowed four QB1 scorers this season (Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts). Josh Allen should have plenty of opportunities to surpass value this week, being a 3.5 point underdog at online gambling sites against Tampa.
Leonard Fournette: $7,400
Leonard Fournette has rushed for 47 yards or fewer in four of his past five games, but has been bailed out by his substantial usage when the Bucs get in the red zone. Fournette has scored a team high nine touchdowns this year.
Fournette has caught 28-of-31 targets over the past four games and now leads all running backs in receptions on the season with 58. Fournette’s emergence as a pass catcher matches up nicely with Draftkings' scoring system.
Stefon Diggs: $8,100
Stefon Diggs is by far the top option to stack with Josh Allen on DraftKings.
Diggs leads the NFL in end zone targets (13) and should stand to benefit from the high 53.5 point total at NFL gambling sites that should feature a lot of offense.
Tampa is allowing a league high 6.2 receptions per game to WR1 options, which makes sense as most teams are forced to go down early against the Bucs and are forced to throw.
Mike Evans: $6600
While most DFS players will flock to Chris Godwin after his ceiling performance against the Atlanta Falcons, Mike Evans comes in at a steep $500 discount on DraftKings.
Not having Tre White for this game should seriously hamper Buffalo’s chances of containing Mike Evans (6’5) on Sunday. Evans will most likely find second-year corner Dane Jackson (5’11) the most of all the Tampa Bay wideouts, which should play to his advantage.