- Brock Purdy has a 238.5 pass yards line that has -115 odds for the under
- Purdy’s short career and mostly playing weak defenses muddies the water
- With a 30.5 pass attempts prop at -113 odds for the over, Dallas’s strong defense will look to limit Purdy’s season-long efficiency
SAN FRANCISCO – Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers face their biggest challenge yet against the 4-point underdog Dallas Cowboys.
Online gambling sites have set various passing props for emerging rookie Brock Purdy. Hot off his best game of the year, Purdy’s props have trended up as well: a few being Purdy passing yards at 238.5 at -115 for the under and 30.5 pass attempts with -113 odds to go over.
Purdy Faces Best Defense of the Season
No one can deny that Purdy has been a strong reason that the 49ers are on a colossal 11-game win streak and his play has been impressive to say the least. However, a deeper look into who he has faced and how Dallas stacks up could be key to finding value in his player props.
Brock Purdy sports many stats identical to NFL MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes, including in yards per attempt (8.1) and completion percentage (67%). Yet, when we look at the defenses Purdy has faced, very few stack up similarly to the Cowboys. The Seahawks are arguably the best defense he has faced, while they rank in the middle-of-the-pack for most stats, Purdy did have two of his three worst pass completion percentage games against them.
But of course, Purdy did have a monstrous 332 passing yards and three touchdowns on them last week. These stats are a bit inflated, as Purdy was able to make three throws of 30+ yards and one being a 74 yard catch-and-run from Deebo Samuel. While the 49ers offense is certainly explosive, Purdy generated 42% of his passing yards on just 10% of his pass attempts, a trend unlikely to continue.
With a Cowboys defense that is third in sacks, stacks up similarly to the Seahawks in completion % allowed at 62.7%, and is by far the best scoring/yardage defense Purdy has faced all year at just 19.8 points and 208.5 pass yards per game. This all bodes well for a solid value of -115 odds for Purdy to go under 238.5 pass yards.
NFL gambling sportsbooks have also set a prop for Purdy over 30.5 pass attempts at -113 odds. The strong defense should bring down Purdy’s efficiency and force him to throw more, because in all the games where Purdy has thrown at least 30 times, his completion percentage has been an average of 63.7%, still higher than the Cowboys defensive average allowed.
Barring big plays that pad Purdy’s yardage and bring down his attempts, bettors can find some solid betting prospects on props of over 30.5 pass attempts (-113) and under 238.5 pass yards (-115).
Brock Purdy under 238.5 passing yards (-115)