Cooper Kupp Regression Due, On Pace For Best WR Fantasy Year

  • Cooper Kupp has scored 102.6 fantasy points in PPR leagues.
  • Extrapolating his betting odds to projections, he’s projected for 22 more against Seattle on Thursday.
  • If Kupp continuously performs on that level, he’ll be the best fantasy WR of all time.

LOS ANGELES - Cooper Kupp has perhaps been the number one fantasy football story of the year so far, if not the number one NFL story.

The Los Angeles Rams WR is leading all WRs in fantasy points in PPR formats, and is projected for 23.5 points in ESPN PPR leagues this week against the Seattle Seahawks.

Coming into the season, Kupp was projected for a fairly modest output. The online sportsbooks had his O/U for receiving touchdowns at 6.5 and his O/U for receiving yards at 1050.5.

On a game to game basis, Kupp’s expectations have far exceeded that now, and it’s time to ask if regression could be in the cards for this outstanding WR.

Cooper Kupp Prop Projections Against Seattle

Kupp’s props for the game against Seattle on Thursday Night Football paint a picture of a truly dominant WR.

Cooper Kupp Receiving Yards O/U Odds

  • 80+ Yards -270
  • 90+ Yards -114
  • 100+ Yards +108
  • 110+ Yards +127

Kupp’s breakeven line is at 90+ yards, a monster expectation for a player who had a preseason O/U of 1050.5 receiving yards

1050.5 receiving yards over the course of 17 games amounts to a bit over 61 yards per game, but expectations have seemingly swelled for Kupp.

Cooper Kupp Touchdowns O/U Odds

  • 1+ Touchdowns -125
  • 2+ Touchdowns +400
  • 3+ Touchdowns +2100

Kupp is the most favored player on either team to score at least one touchdown, with -125 odds to do so.

Before the season, he was expected to put up 6.5 touchdowns in 17 games. Now, he’s favored to put up a touchdown in basically every game.

Cooper Kupp Receptions O/U Odds

  • 7+ Receptions -189
  • 8+ Receptions +110
  • 9+ Receptions +156

Kupp has -189 odds to end up with seven or more receptions, which brings us to the crux of the problem.

Taking the odds Kupp is favored to reach as rough projections, one could say that he’s expected to reach 90 yards on seven receptions with a touchdown.

In PPR scoring formats, that means that Kupp is expected to put up about 22 fantasy points. Kupp has scored 102.6 fantasy points.

If Kupp scores 22 points a game in the remaining 13 games on the schedule, including this one, he’ll finish with 388.6 PPR fantasy points.

This would be the highest scoring season from any wide receiver in PPR formats in the history of the NFL.

The current record is held by Randy Moss, who put up 385.3 PPR fantasy points on the legendary 2007 New England Patriots.

Granted, there is an extra game now, which does give Kupp an advantage over Moss. Even in that context, it’s still jarring to consider.

In order for this not to happen, Kupp would have to start underperforming these expectations at some point.

Basically, unless online gamblers think Cooper Kupp is going to be the all time WR1, they might want to consider taking his unders going forward when expectations are this high.

The Seattle Seahawks host Kupp’s Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football, which airs on Amazon Prime Video.