Game 4 Could Be The Most Important Game Of The NBA Finals

  • The Milwaukee Bucks blew out the Phoenix Suns in Game 3 behind 41 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo.
  • The Bucks have famously excelled at home, where Game 4 is set to take place.
  • In order to win the series, however, the Bucks will at some point need to win a road game.

MILWAUKEE - The Phoenix Suns have a chance to take a nigh-insurmountable 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Wednesday.

The Suns are up 2-1 in the Finals after winning their two home games, and losing on the road in Milwaukee. The loss in Milwaukee was a fairly convincing one, but it’s still worth noting that the Suns are a) up 2-1 and b) significant favorites to win the series.

For the Milwaukee Bucks, this game is a chance to even the series, even though they’ll really need to figure out how to win on the road if they want to win it all.

The Bucks have been utterly dominant at home this season, and fairly mediocre on the road, while the Suns have been great at home, and still pretty good on the road. This leaves Milwaukee in a position where all of their home games are absolute must-win games, but even if they win all of them, they’ll still need at least one road win to take the series.

They are favored to take at least this game, though.

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks - NBA Finals Game 4 Moneyline Odds

  • Phoenix Suns +160
  • Milwaukee Bucks -180

The Bucks are pretty solid favorites in this matchup on the moneyline, and it doesn’t seem like there’s much value in taking them.

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Bucks a 58.6% chance of winning Game 4, which would work out to around -142 odds, give or take the vig. Thus, it seems like there’s actually some decent value on the Suns, who may be underdogs in this game, but not to the degree that the online sportsbooks seem to think they are.

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks - NBA Finals Game 4 Spread Odds

  • Phoenix Suns -4.5 (-115)
  • Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 (-105)

The Suns, who were favored by 5.5 points at home, are 4.5 point underdogs in Milwaukee, which is about where the Game 3 line ended up as well.

This is a larger than normal line movement than what would be expected from average teams moving from home to away, but it’s explained by just how bad the Bucks are on the road, and just how good the Bucks are at home.

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks - NBA Finals Game 4 Odds

  • Phoenix Suns -240
  • Milwaukee Bucks +200

The Bucks are pulling closer to the Suns on the series price, and one wonders what could happen if the Bucks win this game.

Their performance in Game 3 was so dominant that it’s entirely possible that markets are reacting to the tenor of the game, and not to the fact that the Suns are still up 2-1. The question for online gambling fans is whether or not the Bucks can hold serve in Game 4. If they do, the question becomes whether or not they can win on the road.