Heisman Trophy Longshots Bets Based On Recent History

  • Betting on longshots with odds longer than +2200 odds has paid off in recent Heisman Trophy history, with only two winners since 2015 having odds shorter than that.
  • Other recent Heisman Trophy trends include betting on seniors, transfers, and quarterbacks.
  • Players that qualify with these trends: Will Levis(+4000), Hendon Hooker(+5000), Spencer Rattler(+6600), JT Daniels(+6600), Bo Nix(+7500), and Phil Jurkovec(+10000).

NEW YORK – One month from Wednesday, the 2022-2023 college football season kicks off.┬áMore importantly to many bettors, August 27 will mark the kick-off for the Heisman Trophy race.

2022-2023 Heisman Trophy Odds

  • CJ Stroud +325
  • Caleb Williams +400
  • Bryce Young +750
  • Jahmyr Gibbs +1200
  • Will Anderson Jr +1400
  • TreVeyon Henderson +2000
  • Tyler Van Dyke +2000
  • Dillon Gabriel +2200

Betting On Longshots For The Heisman Trophy

Heading into the upcoming season, eight players have odds of +2200 odds or shorter. That may lead some to believe the gambling odds lack value, but history suggests that the opposite is the case.

Since 2015, only two of the eventual Heisman Trophy Winners had preseason odds shorter than +2200: Bryce Young in 2021 (+800) and Baker Mayfield in 2017 (+1000).

The other winners all offered significant payouts.

  • Devonta Smith (2020): +20000
  • Joe Burrow (2019):+4000
  • Kyler Murray (2018): +3000
  • Lamar Jackson (2016): +10000
  • Derrick Henry (2015): +2500

Longshots To Consider Based On Historical Context

Using recent trends, longshot candidates begin to take shape. Three recent trends that are prevalent when viewing the list of previous Heisman Trophy winners are:

  • Three of the past five Heisman winners won the award after transferring to their new school.
  • Four of the past five winners had been in college for at least four years. Kyler Murray was listed as a Junior, but he had redshirted behind Baker Mayfield.
  • Since 2010, 10/12 winners were quarterbacks.

Candidates that stick out as CFB Heisman longshots of greater than +2200 and fulfill those recent trends include:

  • Will Levis (+4000): Levis will be going into his second year as the starter at Kentucky. His strong performance coupled with incredible physical tools have made him a popular player in preseason NFL mock drafts.
  • Hendon Hooker (+5000): Looking to follow the Joe Burrow route as fifth-year quarterback transfers to win the Heisman in their second year starting for the new program, Hooker impressed last season with 31 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions.
  • Spencer Rattler (+6600): The 2021-22 preseason Heisman Trophy favorite with +550 odds, Rattler performed poorly to start the season at Oklahoma, was replaced by Caleb Williams, and subsequently transferred to South Carolina.
  • JT Daniels (+6600): Fulfilling the transfer requirement for the second time this past offseason, Daniels heads into 2022 as West Virginia’s projected starter.
  • Bo Nix (+7500): After three seasons as the starter at Auburn, Bo Nix transferred to Oregon. He will have to beat out Ty Thompson and Jay Butterfield to have a chance to win the Heisman.
  • Phil Jurkovec (+10000): Jurkovec’s 21-22 season was a season to forget, as he hurt his hand and only started six games as a result. His previous season as a starter saw him throw 17 touchdowns to five interceptions.