MNF: Can Derek Carr Prove He Belongs At The Top?

  • Derek Carr is currently leading the league in passing yards with 1206.
  • Carr’s O/U against the Los Angeles Chargers is set at 281.5 passing yards, with -115 odds on each side.
  • Carr is averaging 13.7 yards per competition, and his O/U for completions is set at 35.5.

LAS VEGAS - Two quarterbacks that have been lighting the league on fire go head to head on Sunday Night Football.

Derek Carr of the Las Vegas Raiders is the current NFL leader in terms of passing yards, and although many agree that his production is unsustainable (he’s had two overtime periods in three games to pad that number), he’s performed remarkably well.

Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is breaking out in spectacular fashion, sitting at fifth on the season in terms of air yards, although it should be noted that Joe Burrow, just in front of him, has played an extra game.

These two elite quarterbacks will face off on Sunday Night Football, and the player props can tell the story of what the sportsbooks expect from the matchup between the Raiders and the Chargers.

Carr vs. Herbert: Passing Yards

The NFL sportsbooks expect Herbert to slightly outdo Carr in terms of passing yards, but not by much.

Derek Carr Passing Yards

  • Over 281.5 -115
  • Under 281.5 -115

Justin Herbert Passing Yards

  • Over 292.5 -115
  • Under 292.5 -115

Herbert’s O/U is set at 11 yards above where Carr’s is. Carr does have far more yards on the season, but previous performance is not an indicator of the future.

One intriguing aspect of this wager is that Carr is averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt, the seventh highest in the league.

It’s not just volume passing with Carr, he’s put up fairly elite rate stats as well. The general consensus, however, seems to be that Carr is a prime candidate for regression.

He averages 7.1 yards per attempt for his career, and 248.7 yards per game over that same time span.

Herbert sits at 7.6 yards per attempt, good for 17th in the league, but he has more elite targets to throw to, with Mike Williams coming into his own this year, along with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler getting involved in the pass game.

Derek Carr Completions

  • Over 23.5 -135
  • Under 23.5 +100

Carr’s completion number on the night is set at a whopping 23.5, with shading in the direction of the over. The online sportsbooks clearly expect him to be throwing the ball a lot.

Carr is averaging 13.7 yards per completion this season. A game of 23 completions at that rate would put him at 315 yards.

It seems clear that the online gambling markets expect Carr to regress back to the quarterback he has been in the past - a lower yards per attempt number, a lower yards per completion number, and more of a game manager.

Carr has the chance to prove them wrong - and if their estimation of his volume on the night is correct, he’ll have more than just one chance to do so.

Sunday Night Football airs on Sunday, at 8:20 p.m. EST on NBC