- The Phoenix Suns are up 2-0 in the NBA Finals, after two fairly convincing wins at home.
- On the road, however, the Suns are notable underdogs.
- There has been almost a 10 point swing between the spread odds for Game 2 and Game 3.
MILWAUKEE, Wisc. - The Milwaukee Bucks have their backs against the wall in the NBA Finals after losing the first two games on the road to the Phoenix Suns. Bucks fans may point to an uneven whistle in Game 1, or Jrue Holiday missing layups in Game 2, but the fact is that the Suns have played well enough to deserve their 2-0 lead.
The Bucks are at home for Game 3, however, and that has changed the odds on a game-to-game basis dramatically. In Game 2, the Suns were 5.5 point favorites, but in Game 3, the Bucks are favored fairly significantly.
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA Finals Moneyline Odds
- Phoenix Suns +155
- Milwaukee Bucks -175
This is a remarkable switch, and it seems to be based entirely on home/road performance. The Bucks are 33-11 at home this season, with more than twice as many road losses as home losses.
The Suns are elite both at home and away, but they’re a bit better at home than they are on the road - they’re 30-14 on the road and 35-11 at home.
Still, to have a series go from one team being favored by -5.5 to being a significant underdog on a game to game basis is certainly notable.
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA Finals Spread Odds
- Phoenix Suns +4.0 (-105)
- Milwaukee Bucks -4.0 (-115)
A normal NBA home court advantage tends to be in the area of -2.5 to -3.0 points. Being generous, we could say that with the Suns losing home court and the Bucks gaining home court, a six point swing could be expected.
This is almost a 10-point swing. It’s remarkable, and a testament to just how good Milwaukee has been at home during this season and playoffs.
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA Finals Series Odds
- Phoenix Suns -500
- Milwaukee Bucks +350
Unfortunately for Bucks fans, the Suns are still heavy favorites to win the series, no matter how good the Bucks have been at home.
A 2-0 lead is a hard one to overcome, and if the Suns manage to win one of the next two games, they’ll be in the dreaded 3-1 lead - a lead that has only been overcome once in the history of the NBA Finals.
The Phoenix Suns are in the driver's seat for sure, but the question for online gambling fans is just how good the Bucks can be at home. If they prove themselves worthy of the faith the online sportsbooks seem to be placing in them, then we’ll have a series on our hands.