Sportsbooks Set Props On Mahomes Thinking He Is Back

  • Patrick Mahomes passed for more than 400 yards against the Las Vegas Raiders last week.
  • Expectations are once more sky-high for Mahomes, whose O/U against the Dallas Cowboys is 310.5 passing yards.
  • Mahomes has gone over 310.5 passing yards only twice in the last eight games he’s played.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. - Patrick Mahomes exploded back into the ranks of the NFL’s elite against the Las Vegas Raiders, passing for five touchdowns in the game after only passing for four total touchdowns in his previous four games.

Mahomes’ patience was notable - he took what the defense was giving him on the underneath routes, which opened up his traditional deep shots. Only nine of his 50 pass attempts traveled more than 15 yards in the air. Of those nine pass attempts, six fell incomplete, one was caught for a big gain, and two were caught for touchdowns.

For context, in Week 9 against the Green Bay Packers, Mahomes also threw nine passes that traveled more than 15 yards in the air. However, he did that on only 37 pass attempts - 24% of attempts, as compared to 18% of attempts against the Raiders.

It seems possible that Mahomes has at least begun the process of adapting to the massive amounts of Cover-2 schemes that he’s seeing in order to take away his deep ball ability.

Against the Dallas Cowboys, he’s expected to return to his usual dominance by the online gambling markets.

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards O/U Odds

  • Over 310.5 -114
  • Under 310.5 -114

The expectations placed on Mahomes by the NFL betting markets are simply enormous. Dak Prescott, on the other side of this game, is an excellent QB with an arguably better defensive matchup, and his O/U sits at 301.5, nine yards below Mahomes’.

Since Week 3, Mahomes has only gone over 310.5 passing yards twice - although he did go over it in both Week 1 and Week 2.

The Dallas defense has been streaky but good for most of the season, with their stats pointing different directions. They’re giving up an average of 252.8 yards per game in the air, which is 21st in the league, but they’re second in the league in interceptions, and they hold opposing quarterbacks to an 82.7 passer rating.

Dallas has performed very well defensively in their recent games, however. In their last three games, they’ve given up only 168.3 yards in the air.

Those games were against the Denver Broncos, the Minnesota Vikings and the Atlanta Falcons - teams that fall all over the scale in terms of how good they are at passing the ball.

The Broncos are 17th in pass yards, the Vikings are ninth, and the Falcons are 20th - it’s not like the Cowboys have gone up against the Bears, Saints and Texans in their past three games, they’ve been playing real NFL offenses.

The Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday, and the game will be broadcast on FOX.