Turnovers May Be Deciding Factor In 2021 Army-Air Force Matchup

  • This week’s college football slate will kick off at 11:30 a.m. ET with the Lockheed Martin Commander Classic, a matchup between Air Force and Army at Globe Life Park in Arlington.
  • The matchup will feature college football’s top two rushing offenses as well as two top-15 rushing defenses.

ARLINGTON, Texas - This week’s college football slate will kick off with one of the best matchups of the week at 11:30 a.m. on Saturday, when the Army Black Knights and the Air Force Falcons face off for the Lockheed Martin Commander Classic. The game will be played at a neutral site, Globe Life Park in Arlington.

Army Black Knights Vs. Air Force Falcons Betting Odds

  • Army +2.5 (-105)
  • Air Force -2.5 (-115)
  • Army (+120)
  • Air Force (-140)
  • Over 37 (-115)
  • Under 37 (-105)

Air Force sits at a solid 6-2 record (5-3 ATS), while Army sits at 4-3 (3-4 ATS). Air Force has covered the spread in four of the last five games, while Army has only covered in two of their last six games.

Air Force has covered the spread in 10 of the last 15 meetings between the two teams, and the points total has gone under in each of their last 7 meetings.

Army has covered the spread in four of the last five games in which they were listed as the underdog on online gambling sites, while Air Force has covered in four of the last six games in which they were favored.

Last week, Army lost an absolute shootout with Wake Forest, losing 70-56; it was the third straight loss for the Black Knights, dropping consecutive games to Wake, Wisconsin, and Ball State.

On the other hand, Air Force dropped just their second game of the year last week to San Diego State as a 3-point favorite. Coming into the game with San Diego State, Air Force had won three consecutive games, including a win over Boise State.

Both Air Force and Army have utilized the running game to great effectiveness in 2021 - Air Force ranks first in the NCAA in rushing yards per game (318.4), while Army ranks second in the NCAA in the same metric (312.3).

Similarly, both teams have been very good against the run. Army has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (92.6) while Air Force ranks 13th in that category (99.5).

The matchup will feature two teams who try to control the ball with the run game and play good defense; as a result, it may come down to turnovers, where Air Force holds a solid advantage.

Air Force ranks 26th in the country in turnover differential per game (.62), while Army sits at 69th, averaging an even turnover differential. In an evenly-matched game at a neutral field, the team that forces the most turnovers often comes out victorious. Online sports betting sites may see gamblers leaning into Air Force’s turnover edge by taking advantage of the less-than-a-field-goal spread.