UFC 264: McGregor Vs Poirier III – Best Prop Bets

  • Both fighters to win inside the distance have +140 odds.
  • Dustin Poirier to win by KO/TKO or DQ has +180 betting odds.
  • The fight to start round 3 is a -110 underdog.

LAS VEGAS – Any time Conor McGregor is on a UFC card, it’s a lock to be one of the most-watched, and therefore most bet on, cards of the year.

McGregor will be making his walk to the octagon on Saturday for his third fight against Dustin Poirier. Both fighters have won one fight against each other.

Fighter’s To Win Inside The Distance

Most UFC prop bets are based around how long the fight goes on for until the fight is finished.

This one is just about whether the fight will reach a decision or not. Given the styles of these two fighters, the fight is bound to end before it reaches the judge’s scorecards.

To Win Inside The Distance Odds

  • Dustin Poirier +140
  • Conor McGregor +140
  • Fight Reaches Decision +250

Both McGregor and Poirier are thought to be among the best and most technical strikers in the UFC, so for sports gambling sites to offer either fighter to win by knockout at plus-money seems like a bettor’s dreams coming true.

Poirier has won 13 knockouts in his 27 professional wins and three of his last five victories have come by way of a knockout. McGregor has knocked out 19 of the 22 opponents he’s beaten in his career only not finishing Nate Diaz and Max Holloway, who are both notorious for being able to absorb damage.

Bettors may be better off picking their fighter to win inside the distance just to get some better value.

Dustin Poirier To Win By Knockout

These two fought back in January and there’s little to be seen from either fighter than much as changed. McGregor hasn’t beaten a quality opponent in nearly five years while Poirier has been dominating the lightweight division.

Online sportsbooks list the fight as a -110 pick ‘em, but there’s a good chance that the trilogy plays out very similar to the fight earlier this year.

Poirier, since he has some submission ability, has better odds to win specifically by knockout. Just based on the fact that it’s getting +180 odds on something that’s already happened, it has betting value.

Method Of Victory Prop Betting Odds

  • McGregor by KO/TKO/DQ +150
  • Poirier by KO/TKO/DQ +180
  • Poirier by Decision +475
  • McGregor by Decision +600
  • Poirier by Submission +700
  • McGregor by Submission +2200
  • Draw +6600

McGregor’s biggest weakness has always been his cardio and if this fight makes it through a couple of rounds it should be exponentially easier for Poirier to find a finish once McGregor has gassed out.

Fight To Start The Third Round

Since we’ve been talking about the fight not reaching the distance and Poirier winning by knockout, it might be a little weird to see that taking the fight to start round three is actually a good bet to take.

Fight To Start Round 3 Betting Odds

  • Yes -110
  • No -120

Since the start of 2019, both of Poirier’s fights prior to McGregor had reached the third round. Plus, due to the aforementioned cardio struggles of McGregor, Poirier could put it on cruise control for a round or two before he decides to put his foot on the gas.

The odds are good on both sides, it’s just a matter of how someone thinks the fight will play out. Either way, there will be millions of people watching around the world rooting for either side.