- Marina Rodriguez has around -220 odds to defeat Michelle Waterson.
- Waterson, the underdog, has odds around +175 in the matchup.
- Betting fans can find better odds by shopping lines between sportsbooks.
LAS VEGAS - Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson were not expected to be the main event of this UFC Fight Night.
Originally, a matchup between Cory Sandhagen and TJ Dillashaw was planned, before Dillashaw withdrew for medical reasons.
This could be an endearing twist of fate for the two fighters thrust into the spotlight now - both Waterson and Rodriguez have something to prove.
Who Are The Fighters?
Waterson, billed as the Karate Hottie, has been a fighter who has received shots at the elite before, but came up short.
In 2017, she lost to current UFC Women’s Strawweight champion Rose Namajunas by rear naked choke.
In 2019, she lost to former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion Joanna Jędrzejczyk by unanimous decision.
Now, she’s ranked ninth in the division - a far fall for a fighter who once challenged the elite.
Marina Rodriguez has had a similar road, although populated with different names.
In her last three fights, she’s only achieved one win, with a draw against Jessica Calvillo and a loss to Carla Esparza marring her record.
Still, the loss to Esparza is her first, and there are excuses to be made for it - one of her cornermen came down with COVID-19 before the bout.
Rodriguez would like to prove that the Esparza fight was a blip, and taking down Waterson is a good way to do it.
Rodriguez vs. Waterson Line Shopping Odds Breakdown
The online sportsbooks heavily favor Rodriguez in this matchup - as the higher ranked fighter, and the one with the better record, this could be an easy fight for her.
Still, with the fight being accepted by both parties on short notice, there is an element of unpredictability here that could be frightening for Rodriguez’s backers.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson @ Bovada
- Marina Rodriguez -220
- Michelle Waterson +175
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson @ BetOnline
- Marina Rodriguez -215
- Michelle Waterson +184
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson @ MyBookie
- Marina Rodriguez -210
- Michelle Waterson +170
Fans of line shopping could get some solid edge benefits with this fight. Anyone wishing to wager on Rodriguez would wish to stop by BetOnline, where she has -210 odds, the cheapest of the three sportsbooks being looked at here.
Backers of the Karate Hottie will want to find her odds at BetOnline, where the payout is +184 at the time of writing.
Whether or not the fight will go the full five rounds is another aspect of the fight that can be line shopped.
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson - To Go The Distance @ Bovada
- Yes -205
- No +165
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson - To Go The Distance @ BetOnline
- Yes -200
- No +160
Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson - To Go The Distance @ MyBookie
- Yes -250
- No +175
For those who wish to wager on the fight going the distance, the best bet is going to be BetOnline, where that outcome has -200 odds.
For those who think a finish is in order, MyBookie has that outcome with +175 odds.
Rodriguez has a decision win rate of 46%, meaning she’s achieved 46% of her wins by decision. For Waterson, that number is 33%.
This is potentially surprising, but could be a result of the lack of time and preparation devoted to this matchup - the sportsbooks seem to agree that the most likely outcome is a decision.
MMA betting fans have a lot to think about, and hopefully this line shopping column helped clarify some of the issues they may have.
The main card for this UFC Fight Night will air at 8:00 p.m. EST, and the event will be broadcast on ESPN+.