Betting on Tom Brady and Kenny Pickett in Week Six

  • Betting the over for many of Kenny Pickett’s passing props at online gambling sites is a strong option given his statistics last week.
  • Based on Tom Brady’s play this season and the Steeler’s defense last week, betting on TB12’s longest completion being over 37.5 yards is a strong bet.

PITTSBURGH - After facing the quarterback that was the betting favorite for MVP last week, Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers face off against the player that many consider the greatest of all time, Tom Brady.

That brutal stretch to begin Pickett's career is reflected at online gambling sites, as the Steelers are home underdogs by more than one score for the first time since at least Tom Brady's sophomore season at Michigan.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

Team: Spread: Moneyline: Total:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9.0 (-105) -420 O45.0 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers +9.0 (-115) 315 U45.0 (-105)

With the Steelers such large underdogs, betting the over for many of Kenny Pickett's quarterback prop bets may be a strong option at NFL sportsbooks.

Betting on Kenny Pickett Prop Bets

Online sportsbooks have seemingly disregarded Kenny Pickett's performance against the Buffalo Bills last week when they set his passing props.

  • Kenny Pickett is Week Five: 34 completions on 52 passing attempts, 327 passing yards, zero touchdown passes, and one interception
  • Kenny Pickett Week Six Props: 33.5 completions (Over: -115, Under -115), 239.5 yards (Over: -115, Under -115), 1.5 touchdown passes (Over: +185, Under: -250), 0.5 interceptions (Over: -230, Under: +170)

Pickett threw the ball 52 times against the Bills despite the game getting way out of hand. With Tampa Bay favored by nine points, that may happen again.

If Pickett throws the ball that much again it may be wise to bet the over on all the passing props again, although two particularly stand out:

  • Passing Yards: In last week's game Pickett threw for 327 passing yards, which is 87.4 more than he would have to throw to still go over this week's prop. What makes the over such a good bet for passing yards is not just last week's yardage, but also the weather. Playing at Buffalo in a game with 16-mile-per-hour winds, Pickett still cleared 300 yards. With Pickett playing at home in Pittsburgh where the winds are expected to be between 7-10 miles per hour, it is hard not to see him throwing for well north of 239.5 yards.
  • Interceptions: Through his short NFL career, Pickett has thrown four interceptions on 65 pass attempts. He did throw three interceptions in relief of Mitchell Trubisky in Week Four, and some of them may not have even been his fault, but he still has shown a propensity for putting the ball in dangerous positions. Tampa Bay's defense also ranks sixth in the entire league in interceptions.

Betting on Tom Brady Prop Bets

Finding the best Tom Brady prop bet is slightly more difficult than Pickett because multiple factors indicate both the over and under for his prop bets.

Take his passing touchdowns prop as an example:

  • Case for taking over 1.5 touchdown passes (-200): Brady has faced the Steelers 12 times in his career and averages 2.4 touchdown passes in those games. In addition to that, the Steeler’s defense gave up four touchdown passes to Josh Allen last week.
  • Case for taking under 1.5 touchdown passes (+150): Tom Brady has thrown for less than 1.5 touchdown passes in four out of five games this season. Getting plus odds on a bet that has hit at an 80% clip is typically an excellent value.

Going more in-depth reveals that the clear best bet for Tom Brady is betting the over for his longest completion.

Tom Brady’s Longest Completion Odds

  • Over 37.5 Yards -115
  • Under 37.5 Yards -115

Brady has had a completion of 37.5 or more yards in three of five games this season. In one of those games that he did not, TB12 was without his two top receivers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

On top of that, Tampa Bay is facing a Pittsburgh defense that allowed three passes of 40 or more yards last week.

With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both expected to play against a vulnerable defense, betting on a single 37.5-yard completion by Tom Brady is an excellent option in the game.