Can Derek Brunson Prove Himself To Be More Than A Gatekeeper?

  • Darren Till battles Derek Brunson in the namesake match of this week’s UFC Fight Night.
  • Till and Brunson are ranked 7th and 5th in the middleweight division respectively.
  • Till has -185 odds to defeat Brunson, making him a fairly significant favorite.

LAS VEGAS - Darren Till faces off against Derek Brunson in the headliner of this week’s UFC Fight Night.

Till is a decorated fighter but injury issues have kept him out of fights for a while now, and his last fight was a tough loss to Robert Whittaker in July 2020.

Since the Whittaker fight, he’s missed dates with Marvin Vettori and Jack Hermansson, and now his stock has fallen a bit as he’s faced with Brunson.

Brunson is the guy who keeps people honest in the UFC’s middleweight division. He’s on a four-fight winning streak after a loss to Israel Adesanya, the UFC middleweight Champion.

Darren Till Vs. Derek Brunson Moneyline Odds

  • Darren Till -185
  • Derek Brunson +150

Till is a notable favorite with online sportsbooks - he’s a fighter with championship aspirations, although his loss to Robert Whittaker surely puts a damper on them for now, it was still a praiseworthy performance from Till.

Still, losing to the number one contender, even in a good loss, is still a loss. Brunson also has a loss to Bobby Knuckles on his record - it’s not the end of the world, but it’s unclear how much more either fighter will have to do to break into serious contention after a win here.

Darren Till Vs. Derek Brunson Method of Victory Odds

  • Darren Till Wins By Decision Or Technical Decision +375
  • Derek Brunson Wins By Decision Or Technical Decision +325
  • Darren Till Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ EVEN
  • Derek Brunson Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ +400
  • Darren Till Wins By Submission +1600
  • Derek Brunson Wins By Submission +1100
  • Draw Or Technical Draw +6600

As far as how the matchup is shaping up, Darren Till by KO is the most likely outcome to occur based on the MMA betting boards.

Brunson makes up ground by having slightly shorter odds to win by decision and by submission, reflecting his ground game.

Despite being known as a competent wrestler, Brunson has achieved 12 of his 22 UFC wins by KO.

Till is also a KO machine, with 10 of his 18 wins coming via KO. In the context of both fighters being fairly likely to finish the other - and with two extra rounds in which they can do so - another intriguing wager presents itself.

Till Vs. Brunson - Will The Fight Go The Distance?

  • Yes (Fight Goes The Distance) +160
  • No (Fight Does Not Go The Distance) -200

This fight does not seem like the kind of fight that will go the distance based on how often the fighters finish their opponents, although there is a nonzero chance of Brunson choosing to approach this the way he approached the Kevin Holland fight by using his wrestling to control Till and win by points.

He does have the stamina to do so, but it seems as though the numbers are against it. As for Till, six of his 18 UFC wins have been via decision - it’s not a common result for him.

Online gambling fans should keep an eye on this card, which will begin at 4 p.m. EST on Saturday Sept. 4 and can be viewed on ESPN+.