Can Derrick Lewis Overcome The Odds Once Again?

  • Ciryl Gane takes on Derrick Lewis for the Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship.
  • The winner is likely to face champion Francis Ngannou.
  • Gane is a -360 favorite, and a dangerous striker with elite skill, especially at heavyweight.

HOUSTON - UFC 265 kicks off on Saturday and even though Amanda Nunes has been removed from the card, it should still be remarkably exciting. The main event of the card is a heavyweight bout for the Interim Heavyweight Championship between Ciryl Gane and Derrick Lewis.

This being an Interim Championship bout comes with some debate - and puts the winner on a collision course with reigning champion Francis Ngannou.

Lewis is a heavyweight division stalwart, who holds a win over Ngannou in one of the weirdest matches of the decade.

Gane is a fighter that Daniel Cormier called “the evolution of mixed martial arts at the heavyweight division,” a fighter who takes his opponents apart at range with skill and speed.

Lewis, naturally, enters the fight as an underdog on the online sportsbooks - but he’s been in that position before and still managed victory.

Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane Odds

  • Derrick Lewis +270
  • Ciryl Gane -360

Gane is heavily favored, as he is likely to be dominant on the feet - at least as far as scoring points goes. Lewis, as he tends to, has a puncher’s chance to win this fight - he’s lost fights for significant periods of time before putting his opponents on the ground.

Lewis isn’t just a guy with great knockout power, though - he works for setups the entire bout, knowing that his best chance of victory is with his power, and not through the judges' scorecards.

In other words, MMA betting fans can expect to see Lewis look for a killshot, while Gane aims for a decision victory, and takes what he can get. In a five round fight, a fighter as skilled as Gane is likely to find some chances to hit Lewis hard, but it remains to be seen what he can do with them against a fighter as dangerous as Lewis.

UFC 265 - Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane - Method of Victory

  • Ciryl Gane Wins By (Technical) Decision +200
  • Derrick Lewis Wins By (Technical) Decision +1000
  • Ciryl Gane Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ +125
  • Derrick Lewis Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ +300
  • Ciryl Gane Wins By Submission +650
  • Derrick Lewis Wins By Submission +2500
  • Draw Or Technical Draw +6600

The online sportsbooks believe that Gane has a great chance to win this fight by KO, giving him +125 odds to do so. Gane averages more than five significant strikes per minute, and he’s a dangerous fighter from the outside, with three TKO wins on his record.

However, in the UFC, he’s only racked up one TKO win, and three of his last four wins have been by decision.

Lewis has been TKO’d before, multiple times. Most recently, Junior Dos Santos TKO’d Lewis in his last UFC loss, back in 2019.

Still, it’s a bit surprising that Gane’s odds of winning by TKO are higher than his MMA odds of winning by decision, given his recent trend towards outstriking slower and less skilled fighters.

On Lewis’ side, his weapon is his knockout power, and it is by far the most likely method that Lewis has to win this fight. Online gambling fans should keep an eye on these lines during the fight with live betting, and can use live betting to double down on and hedge on any pre-fight wagers.