Can Geno Smith Outshine Jameis Winston For Monday Night Football?

  • Geno Smith has -114 odds to pass for more than 205.5 yards against the New Orleans Saints.
  • His opponent Jameis Winston has the same odds at the same number.
  • However, Winston has -133 odds to end up with more passing yards than Smith.

SEATTLE - The Seattle Seahawks (+175) host the New Orleans Saints (-200) for Monday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. EST and will be broadcast on ESPN.

The Saints are 3-2 entering the game, while the Seahawks are 2-4, and both teams could really use a win - the Saints to gain some consistency, and the Seahawks to limit the damage of Russell Wilson’s injury.

With Wilson still out, Geno Smith will be under center for the Seahawks, while Jameis Winston will start for the Saints.

Geno Smith's Passing Yards

  • OVER 205.5 -114
  • UNDER 205.5 -114

Since stepping in for Russell Wilson in Week 5, Geno Smith has been a reasonable NFL-level quarterback, passing for 131 yards after Wilson’s Week 5 injury against the LA Rams and 209 yards in his first full start against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6.

New Orleans could be a good matchup for him, as the Saints defense is allowing the ninth most yards in the air this season at 275 per game.

The Seahawks have shown limited desire to restrict Smith’s passing - he passed the ball 32 times against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6.

Some of that is perhaps due to a rash of injuries that have impacted the Seahawks' RB room.

Starting RB Chris Carson is out with a neck injury, Alex Collins is questionable for the game with a groin injury and Rashaad Penny will be suiting up against the Saints for his first NFL game this year after coming off of IR.

Jameis Winston's Passing Yards

  • OVER 205.5 -114
  • UNDER 205.5 -114

Winston has exceeded 205.5 passing yards in his two previous starts, although the three before that all saw him well under this number.

The Seattle Seahawks secondary has been exploitable this season, with opposing QBs passing for an average of 292.5 yards against them.

Winston’s highest passing yardage total this year is 279, which he accomplished against the Washington Football Team, the worst passing defense in the league.

Seattle is giving up about 25 passing yards per game less than Washington, but they’re definitely on the lower end of pass defense, which means this could be a good matchup for Winston.

Most Passing Yards - Geno Smith Vs. Jameis Winston

  • Geno Smith -112
  • Jameis Winston -133

Intriguingly, despite both quarterbacks being pegged at a 205.5 O/U line for pass yards with -114 odds on both sides, the odds for which one of them will end up with the most pass yards is slanted in favor of Winston.

This seems to imply that either these numbers are off or the base numbers are off - if one QB is favored to get more pass yards than the other, why do they have the same pass yards O/U?

Online gambling fans can interpret this in multiple ways. Should Winston be more favored to hit OVER 205.5? Should Smith be less favored? Only time will tell.