- Patrick Mahomes has -120 odds to pass for more than 325.5 yards against the Tennessee Titans.
- Mahomes is averaging 314.5 passing yards per game, and three passing touchdowns per game.
- Mahomes has -156 odds to pass for more than 2.5 touchdowns.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. - Patrick Mahomes has been having a pedestrian year by his lofty standards, which is to say he’s third in the league in passing yards with 1887 and first in the league in passing touchdowns with 18.
When averaged over his six games played, Mahomes is putting up three passing touchdowns and 314.5 passing yards per game.
Online gambling fans are forced to choose between the OVER and the UNDER on Mahomes’ ambitious prop betting odds.
Patrick Mahomes' Passing Yards O/U Odds
- OVER 325.5 -120
- UNDER 325.5 -108
Mahomes is averaging slightly less than this O/U line in terms of passing yards, with 314.5 per game.
He has three games in which he’s passed for more than 325.5 passing yards, and three in which he has not.
The three in which he has were against the Cleveland Browns, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Washington Football Team.
The three in which he has not were against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Buffalo Bills.
One aspect of Mahomes’ matchups against defenses is that they are rolling in to Cover 2 against him more than any other QB in the NFL.
Coverage rate plot, but from the quarterback's perspective.
So here's the coverages Patrick Mahomes sees relative to other QBs.
More Cover-2 and 2-Man than anyone, less Cover-1 (labeled Man1 on the plot) and Cover-3 than anyone.
(ESPN / NFL Next Gen Stats) pic.twitter.com/KIElNOAxtl
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 14, 2021
The effect that Cover 2 tends to have is that it limits deep shots, which the Chiefs are known for with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and a bevy of talented speedsters.
However, dropping two safeties deep opens up the short passing game, and should allow the Chiefs to sustain drives if they can be patient enough to take the easy option instead of forcing the ball deep.
It’s an open question as to whether the Tennessee Titans defense will opt for this on Sunday, but it’s becoming the in-vogue way to approach Mahomes - both the Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills relied on it heavily in their high profile upsets of the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes' Passing Touchdowns O/U Odds
- OVER 2.5 -156
- UNDER 2.5 +120
Despite his (relative) struggles to adjust to the style of coverage that has been deployed against him, Mahomes has been lethal in terms of passing touchdowns, with 18 on the season.
Mahomes has two games with three passing touchdowns, two games with two passing touchdowns, and one game with five passing touchdowns.
The O/U for his touchdowns against the Titans is set at 2.5, with heavy shading towards the OVER.
The Titans give up an average of two passing touchdowns per game and Mahomes scores an average of three passing touchdowns a game, meaning this 2.5 O/U seems about right.
Patrick Mahomes' Rushing Yards O/U Odds
- OVER 19.5 -114
- UNDER 19.5 -114
Mahomes has had a good year on the ground - another consequence of Cover 2, which allows QBs to leak out since defensive players are playing so deep.
Mahomes has gone for more than 19.5 yards in all of his last four games, although he missed it in the first two.
His lowest rushing total over the last four games is 26, and his highest is 61 - he’s doing legitimate damage on the ground.
Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST. The game will be broadcast on CBS.