- Jared Cannonier faces off against Kelvin Gastelum on Saturday.
- Cannonier has -150 odds to win the fight.
- Both are coming off of losses to Robert Whittaker and looking to reposition themselves in the division.
LAS VEGAS - Jared Cannonier has to defend his position near the top of the middleweight rankings from Kelvin Gastelum. Gastelum, a far bigger name than Cannonier, is an underdog in this fight, as bettors seem to favor the higher-ranked Cannonier.
Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum Moneyline Odds
- Jared Cannonier -150
- Kelvin Gastelum +125
This bout was originally scheduled to be between Cannonier and Paulo Costa, with Costa looking to remain at the top of the division after getting dominated by Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya in their championship matchup.
However, Costa withdrew from the fight, later claiming that he never even signed a contract for it in the first place.
Cannonier is looking to recover after a loss to Adesanya’s biggest challenger right now, Robert Whittaker.
Whittaker broke Cannonier’s arm with a kick, although Cannonier managed to take the fight to a decision, which he of course lost.
The losses on Cannonier’s record are generally pretty high level fighters - Whittaker, Jan Blachowicz, Glover Texeira and Dominick Reyes are the people that he’s lost to since 2017, and all of them are top competitors in the UFC.
In that sense, Cannonier might be a bit underrated as a fighter - his losses have come from the cream of the crop in multiple divisions, with the exception of a loss to Shawn Jordan in 2015.
Gastelum, at this point in his career, is a known quantity and is perhaps on the downswing of his career. Four of his last five fights have resulted in a loss for Gastelum, although his level of competition has been high.
A loss to Adesanya kicked off a three-fight skid that saw him also lose to Darren Till and Jack Hermansson.
Gastelum rebounded with a win over Ian Heinisch before losing to Robert Whittaker in April 2021.
In that context, his skid looks a bit more reasonable. The question for fans of online gambling is whether or not Cannonier fits into the category of “elite fighter that beat Kelvin Gastelum” or the category of “guy Kelvin Gastelum can still beat”.
Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum Method of Victory Odds
- Jared Cannonier Wins By (Technical) Decision +240
- Kelvin Gastelum Wins By (Technical) Decision +210
- Jared Cannonier Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ +175
- Kelvin Gastelum Wins By KO, TKO Or DQ +550
- Jared Cannonier Wins By Submission +1800
- Kelvin Gastelum Wins By Submission +900
- Draw Or Technical Draw +6600
In terms of how the fight is likely to end, Cannonier is likely to win by KO in this fight, with +175 odds. Cannonier has achieved 69% of his wins via KO, and his power is not in dispute. Gastelum, however, is a human fridge, and has never been knocked out.
For this reason, one suspects that Cannonier’s odds to win by KO are longer than what they would normally be, as MMA betting fans doubt anyone’s ability to put Gastelum down.
Gastelum is more likely to win by decision than Cannonier, but not by much. It seems like the sportsbooks expect him to be able to compete, but not likely to pull off a finish.
Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum Total Rounds Odds
- Over 4.5 Rounds -115
- Under 4.5 Rounds -115
In the context of Gastelum being very hard to knock out, and the additional context of Gastelum having very low odds to win by finish, it might be a solid play to wager on the fight going to a decision.
On the other hand, it could be that it’s finally Gastelum’s time to get knocked out. Cannonier wields incredible power - let’s see if he can be the guy to put Gastelum’s lights out.