Which Bucs WR Will Explode Against The Eagles For TNF?

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are helmed by QB Tom Brady, but their greatest weapons are at the WR position.
  • Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have similar odds to get OVER 68.5 receiving yards against the Eagles.
  • Antonio Brown is just behind them, with -114 odds to get more than 63.5 receiving yards in the game.

TAMPA, Fla. – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have rolled out a three-headed monster at the WR position with Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin comprising those three heads.

The Bucs have arguably the most talented group of receivers 1-3 in the league but with so many mouths to feed, it can be difficult to determine which WR will end up with the production week-to-week.

Let’s take a look at target share and the average depth of target and see if it’s possible to figure out which of these receivers is most likely to hit their O/U yards prop bets this week.

The Bets On The Table

Below are the various WR wagers on the Bucs:

Chris Godwin Receiving Yards O/U

  • OVER 68.5 -114
  • UNDER 68.5 -114

Chris Godwin came into this season with high expectations and initially met them, scoring a touchdown along with 105 receiving yards in his first game this season.

However, Godwin has waned recently in terms of production – he hasn’t broken 80 yards in a game since Week 1, and hasn’t scored a receiving touchdown since Week 2.

Godwin has racked up more than 68.5 yards in three of the five games he’s played this season, which suggests this line is set close to reasonably.

Godwin’s average depth of target has dropped this season, however, and it currently sits at 9.2 yards, the lowest of his NFL career.

In exchange, however, the speedy wideout has racked up 41 targets over 5 games, an 8.2 target per game pace.

This is up from last year, a year in which Godwin saw 84 targets through 12 games.

Mike Evans Receiving Yards O/U

  • OVER 68.5 -114
  • UNDER 68.5 -114

Mike Evans is used in a vastly different role from Chris Godwin, but expectations for them in terms of yards are about the same.

Evans has an average depth of target of 14.1 yards, and is averaging nine targets a game – both of these numbers are significantly above Godwin’s and suggest that the two perhaps should not be equal.

Evans has only been held under 68.5 yards in the first game of the season, with his last four contests yielding 75 or more yards each game.

His underlying statistics suggest that he’s getting better looks than Godwin at a roughly similar rate.

Antonio Brown Receiving Yards O/U

  • OVER 63.5 -114
  • UNDER 63.5 -114

Antonio Brown missed a few weeks due to COVID-19 but has been utterly dominant when playing.

Brown has the same ADoT as Mike Evans and has seen 29 targets through four games – only starting two.

Brown’s snap count seems worrying for those who expect high usage from him – he’s only been in on 43% of snaps, while Evans and Godwin have been in on 84% and 89% respectively.

Some of that is that Brown has missed a game, but he has an undeniably lower workload than Evans and Godwin, who are, at least by snap count, 1a and 1b on this offense.

Still, he’s a player that can turn a routine pass play into a touchdown at the drop of a hat.

Brown’s immense talent makes him valuable, as do his target numbers and ADot – while the snap count is worrying, it’s not a dealbreaker for online gambling fans who would want to bet on Brown.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Philadelphia Eagles for Thursday Night Football. The game starts at 8:20 p.m. EST and will be broadcast on FOX and the NFL Network.